Philippine Affairs

Fairytale Statistics

[Click here to download a PDF copy of the complete text of  the 2009 SoNA]

It was her last State of the Nation Address. The least she could have done was to tell the truth and apologize for her shortcomings and crimes. Instead, she has again chosen to boast about her administration’s flimsy achievements and tell economic fairy tales for most parts of the speech. All the bloated claims about the nation’s economy were not made more credible by the charts and statistics presented. Higher credit ratings, lower foreign debts, and bigger GDP are all meaningless in the midst of hunger and poverty. The 8 million jobs generated in the past years might be correct but is quantity more important than quality? It is more likely that the seasonal and underpaid jobs were included in the count.

The statistics gathered and prepared by the government might show some improvements but are they significant or just mere sugar-coatings? For instance, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo stated in her SoNA speech that remittances from OFW’s significantly increased during the past years of her administration; however, this could be interpreted as an indirect admission that more Filipinos are seeking opportunities abroad because of lack of available jobs here at home!

The resiliency of Philippine economy in the midst of global economic recession was over-stressed and mis-represented in the speech. It seems that the government does not agree with the World Bank that the Philippines has yet to feel the lash of the tail of the global financial breakdown. Things first will become worst before it gets better. Big multi-national companies that have been operating in the Philippines for decades have shutdown their operations just recently at the wake of the financial crisis. Thousands became unemployed. Even the supposedly growing BPO industry also have done some trimmings to streamline their operations. How about the government rationalization plans? Are these good indicators that the economy is indeed strong?

Unpopularity and Arrogance

President Arroyo is too arrogant and self-righteous to listen to her critics even if these critics are the majority of the Filipino people. She set the record lowest approval ratings at negative thirty-eight (-38%) in 2008 and maintained negative ratings since then. The Filipinos generally mistrust GMA but she is too arrogant to point out:

“I did not become President to be popular. To work, to lead, to protect and preserve our country, our people, that is why I became President.”

She seems to have forgotten that as president, she serves the will of the people. What right does a president have to govern if he or she has already lost the mandate of the people? GMA defended the move to amend the constitution by saying:

“The noisiest critics of constitutional reform tirelessly and shamelessly attempted Cha-Cha when they thought they could take advantage of a shift in the form of government. Now that they feel they cannot benefit from it, they
oppose it.”

Patronizing, Lashing, and Begrudging

Her Excellency President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has not forgotten to praise and thank her allies in congress for passing “monumental” bills into law but she also has not forgotten to lash on her critics by saying:

“I am accused of misgovernance. Many of those who accuse me of it left me the problem of their misgovernance to solve. And we did it.

I am falsely accused, without proof, of using my position for personal profit. Many who accuse me of it have lifestyles and spending habits that make them walking proofs of that crime.

We can read their frustrations. They had the chance to serve this good country and they blew it by serving themselves [note: this is obviously a veiled reference to former President Joseph Estrada].

Those who live in glass houses should cast no stones. Those who should be in jail should not threaten it, especially if they have been there.”

Uncategorical and Vague

Although GMA mentioned that her term of office as president will end next year, she has not made a categorical statement that she will not seek to hold onto power by other means. She is most likely keeping her options open depending on where the political wind  might blow. Most people who listened to the SoNA in radio and  watched  it on television were anticipating her to make categorical statement about her political plans but she has again chosen to be vague about it.

[Click here to download a PDF copy of the complete text of  the 2009 SoNA]

There is no legal impediment that will prevent President Arroyo from seeking a congressional seat in her district in Pampanga. She is not even required by law to resign from the presidency should she decide to run for congress this coming 2010 general elections. Apparently, the COMELEC resolution requiring political candidates to resign from their current government posts upon filing candidacy has been revoked. According to a recent survey, the voters and politicians in the second congressional district of Pampanga are solid in their support for the President just in case she runs for congress. Combine this with strong political machinery, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo would be unbeatable in the congressional race.

What then prompted Prof. Randy David to decide to pose a challenge against a political juggernaut if he knew that he would surely be crushed? Although a popular public figure himself, Prof. David lack the experience and resources to vie for a congressional seat in a province that is dominated by the Macapagal-Arroyo political dynasty. Prof. Randy David’s public announcement that he would challenge Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should she decide to run as congressional representative is nothing short of being quixotic.

If ever President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo indeed run for congress, it would not be an issue of legality. It would be an issue of ethics. Filipinos call it delicadeza or kahihiyan. It would not be an issue of winning but an issue of motive. What exactly is the reasonable and ethical motive of GMA to run for a lower position. Although she is silent about the allegations, her recent actions clearly demonstrate that she is already campaigning in her district, pouring deluge of projects using public funds but claiming credits for it.

Prof. David has the right motive but he is unlikely to win considering the political immaturity of the Filipino voters. Patronage politics is still the status quo. For instance, one Pampanga mayor stated in a TV interview that he will not support Prof. Randy David simply because, unlike Gloria, the professor had never donated even a single basketball court.

Consolidating Power

House Resolution 1109 might as well be alternately called as “A resolution facilitating the election of Her Excellency Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as prime minister.” Allegedly, the president used the pork barrel funds as bargaining chips to gain support from the law-makers. It was also rumored that the president is planning to run as a congresswoman in her own district in Pangasinan. This was months before she consolidated her political power by merging the two biggest political parties, Kampi and Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats.

The newly formed party, Lakas-Kampi_CMD is now a political juggernaut that has the biggest resources and strongest organizational leverage. It is estimated that about 70% of all politicians are members of this newly-formed party. However, it is ironic that the former party president of Kampi, Rep. Luis Villafuerte, did not join the newly formed party. It can also be remembered that Rep. Villafuerte was the one who originally authored the house resolution calling for a constituent assembly to amend the 1987 Philippine Constitution. Rep. Villafuerte even withdrawn his support for the resolution that he originally authored. On the other hand, the founding chairman emeritus of Lakas-CMD and former Philippine president Fidel Ramos was also against the merger.

Double Talk

“There is something rotten in the state of Denmark!” Well, actually it’s the Republic of the Philippines. There is really something fishy going on here. The timing, the double talks, and the propagandas are all pointing out to the strong possibility that President Gloria is indeed vying for the yet-to-be-created office of the prime minister. The president is assuring the people that the 2010 presidential election will push through but she has not categorically denied that she will not seek to extend her stay in power.

Constitutional Limits

Based on the 1987 Constitution, the incumbent president is now already barred from being re-elected. On the other hand, even if there are no constitutional restrictions on presidential term of office, GMA cannot expect to gain sufficient popular vote (even with cheating and big political machinery). The president’s popularity and credibility have already been eroded by deluge of controversies. Based on a Social Weather Station survey, it can be noted that the president’s net satisfaction rating reached a record low at negative 32 in the first quarter of 2009. Hence, the only realistic way for GMA to perpetuate her stay in power is to change the form of government from a presidential system to a parliamentary system.

Presidential Election

It is likely that the 2010 presidential election will pushthrough but it is also probable that the next president will be a transition president and ceremonial head of state. GMA will most likely still hold the reigns of government as prime minister. Well, this can only happen if the constituent assembly indeed changes the form of government.

Legal and Political Impediments

Although there are obvious signs of political manipulations, there are several impediments in Gloria’s bid to perpetuate herself in power. The first impediment is the legal question of authority to amend. The constitutional provision is vague about the specific procedure of voting. It is unclear if the senatorial votes will be counted separately from the congressional votes. Even the formation of the constituent assembly can be questioned in the Supreme Court. The other impediment is the political impediment. The church institutions, civil society groups, the academe, and the general public are against any constitutional amendments that will accommodate the selfish interests of politicians to perpetuate themselves in power. Any proposed amendments in the constitution will be submitted to a plebiscite.

“Stupid is as stupid does…”
– Forrest Gump

The term coup d’etat is an English loan word derived from the French phrase that can be roughly translated as “a sudden strike to a state” (coup literally means hit while etat literally means state). A coup is a violent take over of the government by forceful military means. A coup is different from a revolution. Typically, a coup simply replaces the top civilian officials with military officers. It only involves a relatively small group of people while a revolution involves majority of the population. Nonetheless, a coup cannot be successful without a significant support from the cross-sections of the society. Generally, after a successful coup, the function of administering the government is taken over by a junta which is comprised of military leaders. Martial law is then enforced and some fundamental civilian rights are suspended.

Although there are so-called civilian-led coups, virtually all types of coups involve the active participation of the military. A coup uses violence or the threat of violence to brought down a established government onto its knees. Tactically speaking, a coup typically involves controlling some active portion of the military while neutralizing the remainder of the armed forces. This active group captures or expels leaders, seizes physical control of important government offices, means of communication, and the physical infrastructure, such as streets and power plants.

There are three basic types of coup d’etat, namely, breakthrough coups, guardian coups and veto coups. A breakthrough coup is the closest thing to a revolution. It involves the overthrow of a traditional government by a revolutionary army and the creation of a new bureaucratic elite. This type of coup is generally led by junior officers or non-commissioned officers. A guardian coup, on the other hand, typically does not involve drastic changes in the fundamental structure of government. It is transitory at best. It typically involves military and high government officials (e.g., cabinet members) that are closest to the ruler or the head of state. The main objectives of this type of coup may include improving public order, getting rid of corrupt officials and restoring democracy. Finally, a veto coup occurs when the army vetoes mass participation and social mobilization such as elections. A veto coup is generally tend to be bloody and repressive because of the large-scale or broad-based opposition.

Here in the Philippines, there had been several unsuccessful coups in the past, most of these were during the presidency of Mrs. Corazon Aquino. On the other hand, last week’s incidence at the Manila Peninsula Hotel was a failed quasi-coup. It may had the hallmarks of a coup but it was hardly a coup in terms of strategy and tactics. Holing-up inside a luxurious hotel can hardly be considered as a coup. When Senator Trillanes, General Lim and a bunch of civilian and military supporters walked out of the Makati Regional Trial Court, it was more of a pathetic display of desperation rather than heroism.

Although I do sympathize with Trillanes’ idealism, I do not agree with his method. It was the second time around that he tried to oust President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The first time was in 2003 during the Oakwood mutiny. In the first attempt, Trillanes was thrown into the limelight and was heralded as some sort of a hero, leading to his eventual election to the senate. This second time, his failure was less dignified. To see a senator handcuffed and being mishandled was not only undignified, it was an insult added to injury. No, the arresting officers were not the ones who committed the insult. It was Trillanes himself. He has wasted the mandate that the Filipino electorates had given him. Well, when Trillanes was dragged out of the Manila Peninsula Hotel, it was as if the eleven million voters who voted for him were the ones being dragged. Unfortunately, I was one of those voters!

The expected flood of supporters did not materialize. No military units mutinied. Instead of cheers, Trillanes and his handful of followers were forcefully evicted by a commando assault team — armed to the teeth, protected by armored personnel carrier and all!. Aside from irritated eyes and lungs due to tear gas, no one was badly injured during the six-hour stand-off. Nonetheless, it was a totally irresponsible and reckless act on the part of Trillanes to imperil his supporters and the media.

To some extent, it was stupidity to repeat the same failed method. I do not know if the PMA curriculum includes a subject on “basic principles of overthrowing the government.” It’s either the theory does not work or Trillanes had not correctly executed its practical applications.

Senator Trillanes is a brilliant man but his recent reckless actions seem to contradict this fact.

(For more information about Trillanes visit these sites: Friendster Account, Blogspot Site, and Campaign Site)